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GLOBAL RISKS

During the broadcast of classical super Boca - River (October 8, 2006), one of the commentators sports promotion was a disarmament campaign in Argentina with the phrase "A gun in your home is a problem in your home." On October 9, the world awoke to the terrible news: North Korea conducted its first nuclear test successful (do not understand what's successful.) According to experts (not North Koreans), the estimated size the bomb detonated, between 550 tons and 15 kilotons (the Hiroshima was 12.5 kilotons or so). Came to my mind the phrase Argentina "A gun in your house (our home, our planet) is a problem in your home."

Twenty years ago the German sociologist Ulrich Beck began the discussion on "global risks" with the publication of his book Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity . In the text highlighted the emergence of invisible risks [1] , risks unnatural, uncontrollable risks, which have their origin in the creation, distribution and use of new technologies.

This new weapon (pump) in my house, really it is a problem, a big problem. As Beck says, we became unmanageable and is not a problem in a particular country is a problem of all is a global risk.

Beck in 2002 highlighted three areas of conflict in the "world risk society": environmental conflict, global financial crisis and the terrorist threat [2] . In this corner we will highlight one of the environmental conflict: global warming. I know for certain is to talk about that much talked about, but perhaps "we hear?

But not enough to deafen our ears to the voices warning of the overall risk. Its effects and other senses are perceiving. Feel more heat, we noticed the temperature rising, we see glaciers disappear, we feel the death blow of the hurricane, the "child" is behaving strangely. We are sitting on a time bomb, as well as deaf we become blind to certain events: the number of hurricanes of Category 4 and 5 has doubled in the last thirty years (just take a look to 2005), malaria has spread to regions of higher altitude, heat waves are more frequent and more intense, more frequent infectious diseases (before we had a cold a year, we're not cold once a year), droughts and reduced production of ozone with impacts this entails.

The November 21 will launch the documentary An Inconvenient Truth . Global warming . E ste complete documentary highlights the very delicate moment in which our planet and shows facts, figures and information often not available when we try to see the entire context of global warming. The poster is published with this article for the documentary, and the following photos are an example of what is documented. For more information www.climatecrisis.net.

WHAT IS GLOBAL WARMING?

What is global warming? Answers a question that brings inconvenience to the main producers of carbon dioxide, inconvenient truths as reported in the documentary Paramount. The carbon dioxide (CO2) and other gases [3] warm the earth's surface by trapping solar heat in the atmosphere, a phenomenon necessary for our survival, but the rapid increase in the emission of these gases is increasing the temperature with the effects outlined above. Most scientists say global warming is real, the evidence is overwhelming and undeniable.

If the warming continues, we can expect catastrophic consequences

Only we can solve the problem we have at home, it is our obligation moral disarm the bomb. Small changes in our daily routine are great changes that help stop the clock on the bomb: drive less, recycle your trash, plant a tree, turn off your electronics when not in use, and reduce unnecessary emissions of gases listed. The time to solve the problem NOW.

Yesterday was Katrina, now no matter the name. Yesterday was "trinity" (1945 U.S.), RDS-1 (Russia 1949), Hurricane (1952 in England), Gerboise Bleue (1960 in France), " 596" (1964 in China), Smiling Buhdda (1974 India), Chagai-I (1998 in Pakistan), today no matter the name (North Korea). Because in the end is, a global risk. Agree in our moral responsibility towards our house, is a global risk and its solution must be global. But there's the problem, given the global risk is what makes it uncontrollable. Only when North Koreans, South Koreans, Israelis, Palestinians, Catholics, Muslims, powerful economic groups (oil) producers "dirty" technologies, among other groups "guilty" of having "a gun at home" join the campaign of disarmament, we can begin an effective solution to the problems generated by this irrational struggle with our house.

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[1] In fact, Beck speaks of "unseen dangers." Beck According to some critics, there is confusion between what Beck means what it means danger and risk. The English translation and publication risk society ( Risk Society: Towards a new modernity ) Was held in 1992.

[2] In 1999, Beck published the book World Risk Society. After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, Beck published article Terrorist Threat, World Risk Society revisited .

[3] (N20, CH4, HFCs, PFCs, SF6) gases are known as "greenhouse gases" because they trap solar radiation, longwave causing a gradual warming effect around the Earth. Although there natural presence of these greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, its concentration has increased dramatically over the last hundred years due primarily to high carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation based on fossil fuels generation that has been the driving force of rapid industrialization in developed countries.

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In a pandemic outbreak

AN OUTBREAK OF A PANDEMIC

The Real English Academy defines pandemic as "e epidemic that ISEASE extends to many countries, or that attacks almost all individuals in a locality or region " . The map of countries that have reported outbreaks of the so-called "bird flu" or "bird flu" is a clear example of a pandemic (see map to January 2006).

Our attention has focused on whether or not delivery Vicente Castaño, have an abortion or not the child of 11 years or at the latest "no tits no paradise", but no eggs or roasted or grilled chicken there will be no paradise. Few care about the scourge that is plaguing Asian and African countries, the bird flu virus. Those of us who do those "blind eye", simply because they were not infected or because there is a risk we see distant in time and distance, know the true effects of this threat, of this pandemic.

invite you to read this little compilation of what is happening in the world in recent months with the plague "Discovey Channel rightly called" biological pump " [ 1] . It begins with a description of what the avian flu virus and ends with the latest worldwide news on the progress of this "flying fever"

What is avian influenza?

Avian influenza, also known as bird flu or the plague of birds, was first identified in Italy more than 100 years. It is a highly contagious viral disease caused by type A strains of flu virus that can affect all species of birds.

According World Organization of Health Organization (WHO), the avian influenza virus are members of the family Orthomyxoviridae, genus Influenzavirus Type A. These viruses are divided into subtypes on the basis of their membrane proteins hemagglutinin (H) and neuraminidase (N). To date, 15 subtypes of hemagglutinin recognizing the influenza virus (H1-H15) and 9 subtypes of neuraminidase (N1-N9). Outbreaks of highly pathogenic forms have been caused by influenza A viruses of subtypes H5 and H7, including H5N1 known.

H5N1 is the most concerns scientists because it is a strain mutates rapidly and their tendency to acquire genes from viruses infecting other animal species. Its ability to cause severe disease in humans has now been documented on several occasions (see table August 2006). Laboratory studies have shown that isolates from this virus can have serious effects in humans. Birds that survive infection excrete virus for at least 10 days, orally and in faeces, thus facilitating further spread in the markets for live poultry and through migratory birds (WHO).

Effects on birds

The infection causes symptoms in birds, ranging from mild illness sometimes manifested as ruffled feathers or the decrease in egg production up disease highly contagious and rapidly fatal known as highly pathogenic avian influenza. " This form is characterized by sudden onset, severe illness and rapid death, with a mortality that can approach 100%. Birds can die on the day of onset of symptoms (WHO).

effects in humans

Although there is scientific controversy on the possible human infection, it appears that these viruses mutate, and they "see" more attractive human body than the hacks. The symptoms of bird flu symptoms in humans range from typical flu-like (Fever, cough, sore throat and muscle aches) to eye infections, pneumonia, acute respiratory distress and other serious complications that may pose a threat to life. WHO says he to human disease seems to begin with a respiratory acute fever (above 38 º C ) cough , respiratory distress and malaise , evolving towards a Table severe "distress" breathing secondary to viral pneumonia. The truth is that every day more human infections have been reported (see Table 1)

Table 1. Statistics on August 23, 2006 of human victims

confirmed Numbers WHO - Avian Influenza A / (H5N1) [2]

Country

	2003		2004		2005		2006 Total
	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths
Azerbaijan	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	5	8	5
Camboya	0	0	0	0	4	4	2	2	6	6
China	1	1	0	0	8	5	12	8	21	14
Djibouti	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
Egipto	0	0	0	0	0	0	14	6	14	6
Indonesia	0	0	0	0	17	11	43	35	60	46
Iraq	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	2	2
Tailandia	0	0	17	12	5	2	2	2	24	16
Turkey	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	4	12	4
Vietnam	3	3	29	20	61	19	0	0	93	42
Total	4	4	46	32	95	41	96	64	241	141

Table 2. Human victims in the last months of 2006

Country	Region	2005	2006
			May June		July	ago
Azerbaijan	western Asia	0	5	5	5	5
Cambodia	Southeast Asia	4	2	2	2	2
China	East Asia	5	7	7	7	8
Egypt	North Africa	0	6	6	6	6
Indonesia	Sudeste de Asia	11	22	28	31	35
Iraq	Southeast Asia	0	2	2	2	2
Thailand	Southeast Asia	2	0	0	1	2
Turkey	Between Asia ( 97%) and Europe (3%)	0	4	4	4	4
Total		41	48	54	58	64

In May 2006 the victims than those recorded in 2005. In 2005 the mortality rate of virus infection was 43% in 2006 is 67%.

What has been reported in recent months

In May

There much fear

investigators write in Science bird flu to reiterate its concern a pandemic bird flu (Source: Science ).

eradication is not secure

Romania has detected a new outbreak of H5N1 in poultry, barely a month after it had announced eradication (Source: Reuters).

Hope is the last thing you lose

vaccine is expected that a Vietnamese bird flu to be tested in August (Source: Thanh Nien News.com).

There is fear to disclose what is happening

A report by an Iranian military doctor saying that a brother and a sister had died of bird flu was denied by the Iranian minister of health, who insisted that the evidence were negative; WHO has called on Iran details the tests (Source: Reuters).

And in America?

Plans for a regional complex for diagnosis of H5N1 virus are under discussion between the Pan American Health Organization, the department of epidemiology Caribbean and the Ministry of Health Trinidad (Source: Caribbean Broadcasting Corporation).

If you know that we got the H5N1 virus, eat chicken? For your information, is not spread by eating, say scientists

The poultry industry in Yemen is losing about a million dollars a day due to bird flu fears , say officials of the Ministry of Agriculture (Source: Reuters).

victims continue to grow

human deaths caused by the H5N1 virus have been found mainly by exposure to backyard poultry, rather than working on farms in poultry, says the Egyptian Ministry of health (Source: Reuters).

Eye with Indonesia (see pictures)

WHO has confirmed six new cases of people infected with bird flu in Indonesia, three of whom have died (Source: Reuters)

In June

is still watering

Scientists in Europe have confirmed a new outbreak of H5N1 in southern Nigeria (Source: Reuters).

Threat of Pandemic

cases of avian virus in Indonesia in the last month, reflects the poor preparation of the international community to respond to the threat of a pandemic (Source: nature).

panic follows

over 1000 kill poultry in an Indonesian village in the Tasikmalaya district of East Java, where an analysis hints that the death of a 15-year-old was due to the avian virus (Source: Associated Press).

The World Bank and other Bangladesh international agencies to deliver two million dollars in aid to this country to combat bird flu outbreaks (Source: Reuters)

The risk is fashionable

The first international scientific journal dedicated to the avian virus was launched by Blackwell Publishing under the title "Influenza and Other Respiratory Virases" (Source: PharmaLive).

The thing is serious

bird flu experts at a meeting last week, said it takes a special international task force to coordinate research on avian influenza in developing countries (Source : SciDev.net)

An international team of researchers is studying the virus before the flu pandemic of 1918, to understand how the flu virus happens to each other (source: )

In July

came to Europe

The director of the Animal Health Laboratory Basque Derio (Bilbao), Ramón Juste, confirmed today, told Europa Press, which analyzed the bird from a wetland of Alava has tested positive for bird flu results (in the variant of the H5N1 virus). However, these results have been sent to the reference laboratory in Madrid. According Juste, is a 'loon', a type of waterfowl that are not usually known for being highly migratory, so it is possible that had been infected by other migratory birds carrying the H5N1 virus. "It's very difficult to make a thorough survey on all migratory birds," he said. ( http://actualidad.terra.es )

The monitoring committee for avian influenza control in the Basque Country has decided to withdraw from tomorrow the emergency measures laid down in around the wetland Vitoria Salburua the finding of no new cases of the disease following the discovery of a great crested grebe infected with H5N1 (es.news.yahoo.com)

Tsunami , earthquakes and bird flu it off

The variety of bird flu that killed seven members of an Indonesian family in May was mutating when extended from person to person, according to confidential data presented at a closed meeting of experts last month (source: nature )

In August

The first victim

China officially confirmed that the first death from bird flu was in November 2003 (Source: SciDev.net)

should be immunized

The researchers caution that at least 95 percent of poultry need to be protected by a vaccine to prevent H5N1 from spreading

Already is top-secret?

Scientists call for the secrets of bird flu to be shared (Source: SciDev.net)

Indonesia Again

The misfortunes accumulate in Indonesia and his bad luck can start to overflow and affect neighboring countries. WHO has confirmed a new case of bird flu in the Asian archipelago, and are 60. The infected by H5N1 is a six year old girl, a resident of West Java province, which began to show symptoms of the disease on August 6 (Source: ABC.es).

Are we ready?

In the latter case, the number of infected in the world rises to 96. Already exceeds the level reached in any previous year and has not yet come fall. When you arrive, resume travel of migratory birds and they increase the risk of spreading the virus. Are we ready? "We really can happen in our countries with the spread of this virus? We learned to live with other risks, such as AIDS; Do you take anything, live with the absence of our feathered friends? To change our diet economic supply of eggs to expensive beef or pork traded in the FTA? Do we really know that it is a pandemic? Are your economic implications, social and cultural rights?

final note

What most lay people ignore is why scientists are concerned? The answer is simple, and the ravages of live H1N1 virus, which mutated in 1918, during World War, causing the epidemic of flu called English, which killed between 20 and 40 million people. This number of deaths was higher than the war itself, than the famous Black Death. It was named so because in those years, Spain was one of the few countries in Europe where there was no censorship of the war, what was the English press first reported on the epidemic. [3]

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[1] On June 18 issued a document with this title

[2 ] WHO reports only laboratory-confirmed cases

[3] Influenza, or more accurately the English flu, has left its mark of devastation, both in the history of the world and in the United States. The murderer turned the microscopic world in four months and claimed more than 21 million lives. In the United States lost 675,000 people due to the English flu, more casualties than the First and the Second World Wars, the Korean War and Vietnam War combined. Pharmaceutical companies worked day and night to produce a vaccine, but the virus disappeared before he could even isolate ( The Journal of the Pan American Health of , Volume 8, Number 3, 2003)

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The risk exists in the storm

The risk exists in the storm

The central hypothesis of an actual perception as proposed by Goethe's "live in the storm, or a pragmatist sense of perception without intermediaries is developed below. It does not mean this proposal, the existence of some entities or qualia impossible to reduce to a representational content, but the inevitable loss of content of any type of representation of risk, especially in natural hazards.

In the narrow sense of the philosophers, the direct perception applies to the properties of the object "seen" as "hot", "hard", "red" properties directly perceived through the senses, these objects pass to become objects of consciousness, which become representations, which communicate through language (words, diagrams, charts, etc.)..

At this level of perception (Sensory), the subject interpretant (as shown) or recipient agent, that is the same level, preceded by a series of elements that determine its epistemic access to reality.

theoretical load much discussed by philosophers of science and beliefs, including myths, legends and religious origins and cultural ecological niche and socioeconomic and political environment, require the existence of many perceptions about the same order of risk. Perceiving an earthquake is a different experience for those who are in permanent contact with this event of nature (areas of high seismic activity) that who have had contact only through a chain or network of representations. The perception of a threat between two perceivers of the same ecological niche with different theoretical load likely generate different representations, the presence of a wild animal, a lion for instance, is not perceived as a child than an adult, their attitudes (due to the collection) will be of wonder and curiosity in the first agent and fear and caution in the second. Even assuming balance of these elements, the psychological condition of the recipient agent will change the features of reality, according to their emotional state, such as love, hate, hope, fear, joy or fear, but also personal motives, interests and expectations play an important role in the act of perceiving.

psychology studies offer us other determinants of perception, which were among the most sensory response to many aspects of the environment (such as high frequency sounds and effects of color in mind), the ability to concentrate, consciousness (which develops the cognitive process or perception), adaptation and memory. Draws attention to the interest of psychology by the physiological basis of perception, especially the sense of sight, which gives the dominant meaning perceivers a large amount of data about their environment, in this regard are many studies of so-called Gestalt psychology. The anthropologist Colin Turnbull, studying Bambutis Pygmies of the Congo, tells how the greatest distance, which manage to perceive objects is approximately 30m, due to its ecological niche (dense forests), on a trip to an open plain one of these pygmies, seen for the first time in his life, confuses a group of buffalo, located a few miles, with a group of insects.

This multiplicity of perceptions resulting in a plurality of representations, which we can not expect a simple mirror reflection as we consider the philosopher Richard Rorty, each subject reduced sensory impressions, in the words of Peirce, a unit or proposition with the form subject predicate the earth moves, could be the first representation (language) of one of the perceivers to the experience an earthquake; the god Atlas scratches his head, could be the representation of another subject in the past Greek or the shock of the Pacific tectonic plate the South American continental plate, has just released a large amount of energy would be represented by an agent charged with the dominant scientific theory.

earners agents same risk, as we have seen, generate particular representations, which necessarily will have to be put into discussion and comparison, initiating the process of social construction and subsequent risk management (use and distribution). In this regard, Andoni Ibarra poses a risk as a social and objectively constructed and added the existence of criteria of rationality of social contingencies that allow the explanation of how to produce and reproduce a complex web of risk.

At this level the question arises again about the effectiveness of these representations of these social constructs. Whatever

concept that has risk the examples presented in the following lines show the low effectiveness of risk perception through different forms of representation.

The risks associated with smoking have been re-presented through films, photographs, documents, statistics, but most smokers, to continue their habit, seem not to notice these risks effectively. A thesis is that "if there is perception" but attitudes are more related to imminent failure of these risks, thesis does not contradict the direct natural sensory perception at the time of the occurrence of risk.

The people living near a volcano high risk of eruption (volcano Galeras in Colombia, for instance), refuse to evacuate despite the warnings posted and the different representations of literature and especially the movie (Volcano and Dante's Peak filmed in 1997) have conducted on the impact of these eruptions. Only when the rivers of lava, fire and rain of stones and ash are present, the people start a mass evacuation. There are actual collection in the storm!

Seismic risk is an even more illustrative. The millions of deaths and injuries, major economic losses, the images of cities destroyed, no representations have been enough so that different stakeholders (including politicians) who live in areas of high seismic risk (that have not yet seen the effects of an earthquake directly) take steps to mitigate these risks. The residents of cities located in seismic areas build their houses without complying with minimum standards for earthquake-resistance despite " perceived" catastrophic effects through representations that offer different means of disclosure of risks.

These three examples of perception of natural hazards, risks visible, known, registered statistically invite to reflect on the risks of artificial origin. The risks of technological origin in an invisible majority, in some cases risks are globalized and democratized say Giddens or in the words of Beck, in most cases can only be perceived through the representations that they make scientists and technologists, a perception that, as has been seen, lost content, is ineffective. Proof of this are high levels of pollution in cities such as Mexico and Bogota, the loss "invisible" in the ozone layer and silent change of natural crops by GM crops.

Throughout this stage, the solution to a greater effectiveness in the perception of risk is in isomorphic representations, as the mirror image of natural or artificial reality, the answer is negative. This reflection is an invitation to the construction of representations that focus not only in the sense of sight, consider also the weak translation or public performance of the current representations of risk.

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What is this thing called risk

What is this thing called risk

What is that thing?

Such questions we found permanently in our relationships with other humans who try to perceive phenomena surrounding environment, be it natural or artificial. It is perhaps the first question of our children, the safety of their parents find answers to those things in the world still do not understand. What is that?, Is a question repeatedly in my two years. That's a library, that is a tree, that is a computer, are the answers to your questions. Only when you extend the description of the thing in question: that's a library, where books are kept, the books are ..., the question ceases, demonstrating perhaps a spirit child satisfaction in their research.

What is this thing called science? Is the title of a book by Alan Chalmers in 1976, but more than answer the question raises other questions such as the nonexistence of a method to prove that scientific theories are true, this book constitutes an excellent introductory text to the philosophy of science. "What is mathematics? E s a book by Courant and Robbins in 1941, but not directly answer our question, its value lies in how readers about the mathematics, be they beginners, specialists, teachers, engineers and philosophers. Einstein himself regarded this book as "a brilliant exposition of key concepts and methods throughout the field of mathematics" [1]

What is science? It is a question that generates debate and discussion about its response. León Olivé in his book "The good, the bad and reason", considers a question metascientific, which tries to respond from outside science. There are three disciplines, according to Oliver, who care to analyze this question: the history of science, sociology of science and philosophy of science.

The concepts of general science and math particular can not be defined. Against the tendency to define "the indefinable", the Roman jurists were wise and radically contrary to the definitions, for them, a definition was dangerous or as expressed Olivé: "any attempt to do, namely to establish conditions and enough that something must satisfy to qualify as science, risk cover too much or stop much out. " The definitions are tools of linguistic clarification (just take a look to the dictionary) and sometimes the definitions are the result of conceptual analysis, but not the procedure to get the essence of the thing, the reality of that thing.

What is this thing called risk?

One of the most important debates on science and technology, is that in recent decades revolves around the concept of "risk." There is no agreement theory between what is meant by risk. It is a concept exposed to social discussions, policies and techniques.

From the technical view, risk is defined as the probability of occurrence of an event with a positive or negative, the negative being the most associated with risk. This "objective risk" experts, framed in economic and political dimensions, hidden social dimension of risk, under the false assumption of cognitive deficits lay public, which since its "subjectivity" only generates movement against scientific and technological developments.

The truth is that in general there is no clear notion of what the risk. Its etymological origin tends to be confused with the word danger: Risk (in English), rischio (in Italian), risque (French), risiko (in German) and risk (in English) from the "danger" that represented the marine rocks (cliffs) to the sailors. Recently I urged León Olivé to philosopher asked a Chinese student, stay at the Instituto Tecnológico Metropolitano de Medellín, about what they understand by risk in China. The general confusion, risk in China is "endangered" its ideogram is a knife. However, once you Olivé clarifies what he meant by risk, "a situation or event which brings into play something valuable for human beings, including humans themselves, and where the outcome is uncertain" [2] , our Chinese friend replied: "Ah! So risk is a potential danger. "

The sociologist Anthony Giddens, calls attention to the difference between hazard and risk, "hazard and risk are closely related, but not the same thing. The difference not a function of whether or not an individual consciously weigh alternatives to supplement or take a course of action. It assumes that the risk is the danger, not necessarily the same danger, for his part Niklas Luhmann, in Sociology of Risk said that "exposure to a hazard is a risk (potential risk) ... There is no ultimate authority - even invisible - that would settle the uncertainty known risk. " The uncertainty itself, gives a subjective character called "objective risk" subjective probability "risk target" fosters a misperception of risk. The risk is not is real, is only a probability, a prediction and sometimes, as in the hazards of biotechnology, an uncertainty.

risk Other scholars are not agreed to make a distinction between "objective risk" of experts and the "moral hazard" of us laymen, Shrader-Frechette, Olivé, López Cerezo, Douglas and Wildavsky, among others, are in uncertainty and risk perception, two key elements to eliminate this distinction. The terrorist attack of September 11, 2001, reflects one's perception risk experts and laymen, is no longer a probability, not a calculated risk, is "the risk come true."

From the technical approach is rescued concepts underlying an understanding of the concept of risk and a possible consensus between experts and lay people: the threat, vulnerability and impact. Independent formulas or sophisticated statistical models employed by financial experts, engineers, technologists, administrators, health professionals, these concepts only require some attention to understand that the greater threat and a greater vulnerability of biophysical cultural or social impact is greatest. But not to be confused with risk impact, has so called "risk become a reality, a name that comes more from the perception of risk that the risk itself. Nor can confuse threat to the event, an earthquake per se is not a threat, an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 on the Richter scale and with a relatively shallow focus close to a city whose buildings are vulnerable, it is clearly a threat to the city , clearly by the recent experiences in disaster aged, vulnerable because there is no building "earthquake."

around the concept of vulnerability exists greater consensus. Vulnerability is linked directly to loss or damage (impact) that can result in the presence of a threat. UNDRO [3] defined as the degree of loss of an element or group of elements at risk resulting from the likely occurrence of a disastrous event, expressed on a scale from 0 or without damage to 1 or total loss. In general the vulnerability reflects the level of exposure to the threat, a roofless house is vulnerable to rain, which may not generate losses but if an injury, discomfort or temporary impairment to the inhabitants of the house, a computer without an updated antivirus program is vulnerable to new viruses, the cognitive impairment of the lay public we deal with the consequences generated by the presence of avian influenza in Asia and Europe, is a vulnerability of social and economic.

Experts evaluate the risk from these three concepts, the first two (threat and vulnerability), known risk factors and the third for what it is to anticipate. " The magnitude of expected impacts of an event, if it occurs, and the probability of the event and its associated consequences, are evaluated in the context of existing controls. The consequences and probabilities are combined to produce a level of risk. These impacts and probabilities can be estimated using statistical analysis and calculations or alternatively subjective estimates that reflect the degree of conviction of an individual or group that may occur particular event or result "(Australian Standard Risk Management , AS / NZS 4360:1999).

Without falling into cultural relativism Douglas and Wildavsky, who argue that " views on the risk of non-experts are of the same value as that of the experts " the fact is that in a democratic society, "perceived risk" by the lay public, should be taken into account. Experts from their desks can not ignore the social dimension of risk, without trying to reject the knowledge of scientific methods to provide risk assessment but this assessment public participation is, in the words of Oliver, ethically essential.

Given the magnitude of the doubt about the risk itself, it is foolish not to consider the public perception of risk!

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[ 1] "A lucid representation of the fundamental concepts and methods of the whole field of mathematics. It is an easily understandable introduction for the layman and helps to give the mathematical student a general view of the basic principles and methods."--Albert Einstein (on the first edition)

[2] León Olive in "The democratization of science from an ethical perspective", p.8

[3] UNDRO United Nations Disaster Relief Organization ( United Nations Office for Disaster Relief, now OCHA)