Thursday, September 6, 2007

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What we know about hurricanes

One of the most common problems in the dissemination of risk is the proliferation of texts or documents that are not supported by reliable sources. It is common to find, for the same concept, information out of context. Two statements from some of these texts allow justify my statement:

Phrase 1. " [...] applicable to the projection of structures and antisímicos buildings [...] " taken from a UNESCO document. There are no buildings antisímicas, I hope ... God forbid.

Phrase 2. " [...] the worst earthquake in U.S. history, which had a magnitude 7.6 on the Richter scale [...] " taken from the www.tiempo.com dated August 15, 2007. The Richter scale is a magnitude scale refers to the energy released in an earthquake, the intensity scale Mercalli is measured and subjectively, the level of damage.

This is a problem and, in my opinion, a minor problem. The major problems in risk disclosure occur when mixed with other factors that have little to do with the phenomena that cause or risk. The spate of hurricanes in 2005 was a great opportunity to justify the dominant theory climate change what happened in 2006? In theory, the increase in temperature will not decrease greenhouse gases and reduce our emission of such gases. Yes climate change is to blame for the spate of hurricanes in 2005 what happened in 2006?

Focusing on the validity or otherwise of the theory is something that should be left to scientists. As we focus is on knowledge of the threats that surround us and in conditions of vulnerability that we promote ourselves. That climate change has generated hurricanes like Katrina, only serves to distract attention from the disaster itself what has been the debate over the Bush administration's inaction before and after the disaster? How has been reported that Bush was informed that New Orleans levees were broken on the day Hurricane Katrina made landfall, according to the complaint of Michael Brown, former director of FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency)? Much was said of the government's inability to address the disaster, but little on the meager budget of FEMA, which was diverted to meet Bush's personal war with Iraq.

The above statements might be thought to contradict my proposal not to change the course of our attention on the risk per se. Most do not. The conditions of vulnerability are associated with safety. Safety from natural hazards such as hurricanes is only the resistance to destruction. A very fashionable term, the study of risk, which sharpens the resistance is the "resilience", defined as the ability of a system to resist changes produced by the environment. New Orleans had it, their conditions were irresponsibly increased vulnerability. The levees were not repaired in time, FEMA did not respond, the poor (most vulnerable) are left to their fate.


this corner, in the context of the introductory paragraph, will address what we know about hurricanes.

What is a hurricane?

The FEMA publication "Are you ready " ( www. Fema .gov / areyouready / ) defined as a type of tropical cyclone, which is accompanied by thunderstorms with winds greater than or equal to 119 Km / h (74MPH or 64 knots .) For lower speeds are simple tropical storms (between 61 and 188 km / h) or tropical depressions (less than 61 Km / h).

Overall a hurricane is a c iClone or "Tropical Storm" Atlantic, as it is in other parts of the world and in the Philippines Baguio be told, in Japan should be named Typhoon and Wyly Wyly in Australia. Each are the same phenomenon ... a tropical storm.

Where are the names that are given to hurricanes?

Since 1953, the Atlantic tropical storms are given a name from lists originated by the National Hurricane Center USA, which currently maintains and updates an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization. Currently, we use six lists with 21 names each in rotation, with alternate names of men and women. The 2001 lists are used in this year. When a storm is disastrous, the name is struck from the list. Ie, Katrina, Andrews, Mitch, etc. have disappeared from the charts, but survive in the history of disasters.

These names are replaced by others. For some reason, the lists do not see the name of George.

If a season recorded a higher number to 21 cyclones, used the letters of the Greek alphabet ( Alpha, Beta , etc.) To denote the other hurricanes.

For 2007 this is the list: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dean, Erin, Felix, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Noel, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy. At the time of publication, and Hurricane Felix had passed.

What is a hurricane of Category 5 ?

The answer is simple. Hurricane is a father and my lord. Disastrous.

U.S. scientists Herbert Saffir and Robert Simpson developed a scale the most accepted form, to "categorize" hurricanes used to estimate the amount of damage they can produce and which depends on the speed of the winds that form the hurricane. This scale is summarized as follows:

Saffir-Simpson scale measuring hurricane intensity

Category

Sustained winds

(Km / h)

Damage

Marejada

(m)

1

119-153

Minimum

1.21-1.52

2

154-177

Moderate: All

mobile homes, small boats, Flood

1.53-2.44

3

178-209

Extensive: Small buildings, low-lying roads

2.45-3.66

4

210-249

Extreme: Roofs destroyed, trees down, roads washed away, homes flooded beach

3.67-5.49

5

More than 249

Disastrous: Most buildings destroyed

Greater than

5.49 meters

The most dangerous part of a hurricane is storm surge. This column of sea water can reach heights exceeding 6 meters. Moreover, heavy rains accompanying the hurricane caused severe flooding.

Some hurricanes remembered for his "intensity" are: Gilbert (Sep-1988), 299 km / h. Hurricane in the Keys (Sep 1935). Mitch (Oct-1998), 287 km / h. Hugo (September - 1989), 260 km / h. Andrew (Nov-992), 250 km / h. And obviously, Katrina and Wilma.


How do hurricanes originate?

To be consistent with my initial statements, I will not give a scientific description of the origin of the hurricane. It suffices to know u No tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing p and rturbación atmospheric, warm tropical oceans (temperature of the water over 27 º C) , hum age relatively light winds aloft. What justifies the oceans warm, the absence of cyclones in other regions of the planet, as in the north and south. Also justified, although no empirical evidence, the relationship of climate change - hurricanes.


When we talk about disaster?

Any definition is subjective. Organizations such as the CRED (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters) http://www.cred.be/cred1/index.htm , or the CE-DAT (Database on the Human Impact of Complex Emergencies) http://www.cred.be/cedat/index.htm considered a disaster when it meets any of these criteria:

· 10 or more people reported dead.

· 100 or more people affected

· state of emergency declaration

· international aid application

When I say that is subjective is because it is how you could call these events:

  • Bangladesh cyclone of 1970. 300.000 people dead
  • Hurricane Fifi in Honduras in 1974. Between 8.000 and 10.000 dead
  • Hurricane Mitch in Honduras in 1998. More than 10,000 dead

Katrina, according to information from EM-DAT (International Disaster Database), was 1.322 deaths (see table below), however the biggest disasters (not established in the above criteria) as a result of Katrina are economic and social. It is estimated that Katrina and Rita left losses of U.S. $ 131 billion.

How might call the results of the Pakistan earthquake? The 73.338 is not simply a figure greater than 10 "a mega-disaster? Looking to Colombia and in the context of these criteria, it justifies the qualifier that he once gave at a corner before ... "Colombia country from disaster"


What a difference a hurricane, tornado?

know their differences before we see they have in common, both are characterized by strong winds and the type of damage they cause. Some tornadoes are "sons" of a hurricane. The tornadoes generated by Hurricane Andrew led to great material damage. C hen landfall becomes one or more tornadoes. Ie, tropical storms are tornadoes on the ground, I Hence the first difference. But not all tornadoes are the result of tropical storms, tornadoes occur in Argentina (away from the tropics) and frequently in the United States. In a single year can be counted more than 800 tornadoes. This is another difference, one would need a very large list to name them. The hurricane is much larger and has a larger lifetime, the tornado is smaller but more powerful, its winds can exceed 500 km / h.




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