As risk analysis management get increasingly caught up in political debates, a new way of looking at and defining the risks of modern technologies becomes necessary
Ortwin Renn & Andreas Klinke
analysis and risk management in the context of modern technology must be made from other perspectives of risk itself. Discussions on the notion of risk have not found a consensus that will address, from a common framework, new risks of technological origin. In an attempt to reach this consensus, in Germany, the Scientific Advisory Board on Global Environmental Change at (German Scientific Advisory Council on Global Environmental Change, WBGU ) has proposed an interesting classification of risks. In this corner, we will go to the six risk groups
Sword of Damocles Risk . According to legend, Damocles was a courtier of Dionysius I, tyrant of Syracuse, who envied his life seemingly fortunate and comfortable. The king, with the aim of castigating, decided that Damocles replace him during a feast, but it decided that on his head bears a sharp sword suspended by a horsehair. In this way, Damocles could understand what instability of prosperity and the luxurious lifestyle of the monarch. The phrase Damocles sword is used for a long time, to express the presence of imminent danger or threat.
In the "sword of Damocles", there are the risks with a high potential for damage, but their occurrence is low probability. The reactor core meltdown of a nuclear plant accident in a large chemical complex and the crack and collapse of a dam, are some risk that "hanging by a thread," like the sword of Damocles.
Risk Cyclops. Here are grouped the risks posed by uncertainty in their effects or the likelihood of occurrence, ie, like the Cyclops, you can only "observe" or determine one side of the equation of risk. This category includes natural hazards: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods and "Children" are natural events with a high degree of uncertainty about the place and time of occurrence, but whose effects are well known.
Pythias. As the Greek sorceress, which issued on behalf of Apollo oracle at Delphi, whose prophecies were uncertain or questionable, the risks of this group are also uncertain, but unlike the Cyclops, the uncertainty is on both sides of the equation risk. Some risks are associated with the possibility of sudden climate change or risks of technological origin as some applications of genetic engineering in agriculture and food production, the effects or causes are still uncertain.
Risk 
Pandora's Box. In Greek mythology, Pandora (virtuous) was the first woman, made by Zeus as part of a punishment to Prometheus for revealing to humanity the secret of fire. Until then, mankind lived a life entirely harmonious in the world. Epimetheus, brother of Prometheus, Pandora asked who never opened the box that Hermes had given him, but one day, Pandora's curiosity was finally with her and opened the box, releasing all human misery (old age, sickness, fatigue, folly, vice, passion, plague, sorrow, poverty, crime, etc.). Pandora closed the box just before Hope
Risk Cassandra. This Trojan priestess repeatedly announced the fall of Troy but nobody paid attention. This group includes all those risks whose effects are highly advertised disastrous, but because of delayed effects, just pay attention. The effects of climate change and the loss of our biodiversity are examples of such risks. The WBGU
Risk Medusa.
The ultimate goal of this risk classification is to allow the formulation of effective strategies for risk management, and provide measures for politicians in different political levels. Finally, Renn and Klinke, grouped into three categories above risks Risk management: preventive
| Management | | | | action strategies |
| Science Based | | High High | Baja Uncertain | reduce potential disaster increase resilience Prevent surprises emergency management |
| Preventive | Pythia Pandora | Uncertain Uncertain | Uncertain | Implementing the precautionary principle develop substitutes Advance knowledge reduce and contain emergency management |
| Discursive | Cassandra
| Medusa High Under | High Baja | Raising Building confidence Implement public participation Communicating risk Manage contingencies |
Damocles and Cyclops require strategies based management
The German proposal, offers another look at the analysis and risk management. The truth is that the thread of the sword of Damocles, as the ozone layer thins more and Pandora's box appears that not all human misfortunes have come to see the world. And we still do not agree. We have not reached consensus on our risks, unflinching look at the progress of deforestation, of pollution, the extinction of thousands of species, and not we agree. No matter which model of management, no matter the notion of risk, what should matter now is that we all identify our present and future miseries and our role in these misfortunes, the only way we will agree, there will be consensus.
[1] Renn, O. and Klinke, A. "Systemic Risks: a new challenge for risk management", EMBO reports VOL 5, Special Issue, 2004
[2] An example of the consequences of exposure of developing animals, including humans, to endocrine disruptors is the case with the potent drug diethylstilbestrol (DES ), a synthetic estrogen. Physicians prescribed DES to nearly five million pregnant women in the period between 1940 and 1970, to block spontaneous abortion was prescribed in the mistaken belief that would prevent abortion and promote fetal growth. Its use is stopped after a high incidence of a rare vaginal cancer in young women exposed to DES.
0 comments:
Post a Comment