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BETWEEN THE SWORD OF DAMOCLES AND PANDORA'S BOX Global Risks

ENTRE LA ESPADA DE LA CAJA DE DÁMOCLES Y PANDORA

As risk analysis management get increasingly caught up in political debates, a new way of looking at and defining the risks of modern technologies becomes necessary

Ortwin Renn & Andreas Klinke

analysis and risk management in the context of modern technology must be made from other perspectives of risk itself. Discussions on the notion of risk have not found a consensus that will address, from a common framework, new risks of technological origin. In an attempt to reach this consensus, in Germany, the Scientific Advisory Board on Global Environmental Change at (German Scientific Advisory Council on Global Environmental Change, WBGU ) has proposed an interesting classification of risks. In this corner, we will go to the six risk groups the WBGU , which were published by Renn & Klinke in 2004. [1]

Sword of Damocles Risk . According to legend, Damocles was a courtier of Dionysius I, tyrant of Syracuse, who envied his life seemingly fortunate and comfortable. The king, with the aim of castigating, decided that Damocles replace him during a feast, but it decided that on his head bears a sharp sword suspended by a horsehair. In this way, Damocles could understand what instability of prosperity and the luxurious lifestyle of the monarch. The phrase Damocles sword is used for a long time, to express the presence of imminent danger or threat.

In the "sword of Damocles", there are the risks with a high potential for damage, but their occurrence is low probability. The reactor core meltdown of a nuclear plant accident in a large chemical complex and the crack and collapse of a dam, are some risk that "hanging by a thread," like the sword of Damocles.

Risk Cyclops. Here are grouped the risks posed by uncertainty in their effects or the likelihood of occurrence, ie, like the Cyclops, you can only "observe" or determine one side of the equation of risk. This category includes natural hazards: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods and "Children" are natural events with a high degree of uncertainty about the place and time of occurrence, but whose effects are well known.

Risk

Pythias. As the Greek sorceress, which issued on behalf of Apollo oracle at Delphi, whose prophecies were uncertain or questionable, the risks of this group are also uncertain, but unlike the Cyclops, the uncertainty is on both sides of the equation risk. Some risks are associated with the possibility of sudden climate change or risks of technological origin as some applications of genetic engineering in agriculture and food production, the effects or causes are still uncertain.

Risk Pandora's Box. In Greek mythology, Pandora (virtuous) was the first woman, made by Zeus as part of a punishment to Prometheus for revealing to humanity the secret of fire. Until then, mankind lived a life entirely harmonious in the world. Epimetheus, brother of Prometheus, Pandora asked who never opened the box that Hermes had given him, but one day, Pandora's curiosity was finally with her and opened the box, releasing all human misery (old age, sickness, fatigue, folly, vice, passion, plague, sorrow, poverty, crime, etc.). Pandora closed the box just before Hope also out, along with all that was left inside, and the world experienced a period of desolation until he opened Pandora's box to release also Hope. The man who has had to live with these tragedies, persistent, uncontrollable, has generated as much or more disastrous effects product of technological developments. One of them is known uncontrolled use, in turn, of chlorofluorocarbons, which cause thinning of the ozone layer. Other risks located in this group are those associated with drug side effects, such as influence on the reproductive functions of endocrine disruptors. [2]

Risk Cassandra. This Trojan priestess repeatedly announced the fall of Troy but nobody paid attention. This group includes all those risks whose effects are highly advertised disastrous, but because of delayed effects, just pay attention. The effects of climate change and the loss of our biodiversity are examples of such risks. The WBGU gives additional qualifying unacceptable risk.

Risk Medusa. The Medusa was a Gorgon sisters who turned men to stone with her gaze according to Greek mythology. Some new technological developments bear similarities to the gaze of Medusa, one of them is non-ionizing radiation, that exposure to it has a number of risks, primarily for viewing, to be taken into account. The risks of this group are of interest when there is a wide gap between public perception of risk of lay and expert risk analysis, as in the case of electromagnetic fields, to which many of us, voluntarily or involuntarily exposed.

The ultimate goal of this risk classification is to allow the formulation of effective strategies for risk management, and provide measures for politicians in different political levels. Finally, Renn and Klinke, grouped into three categories above risks Risk management: preventive based discourse and science.

Management	risk class	damage Extension	probability of occurrence	action strategies
Science Based	Damocles Cyclops	High High	Baja Uncertain	reduce potential disaster Determine probability increase resilience Prevent surprises emergency management
Preventive	Pythia Pandora	Uncertain Uncertain	Uncertain Uncertain	Implementing the precautionary principle develop substitutes Advance knowledge reduce and contain emergency management
Discursive	Cassandra	Medusa High Under	High Baja	Raising Building confidence Implement public participation Communicating risk Manage contingencies

Damocles and Cyclops require strategies based management Science, Pythia and Pandora demand the application of the precautionary principle and risk class Cassandra and Medusa require discursive strategies to build awareness, confidence and credibility.

The German proposal, offers another look at the analysis and risk management. The truth is that the thread of the sword of Damocles, as the ozone layer thins more and Pandora's box appears that not all human misfortunes have come to see the world. And we still do not agree. We have not reached consensus on our risks, unflinching look at the progress of deforestation, of pollution, the extinction of thousands of species, and not we agree. No matter which model of management, no matter the notion of risk, what should matter now is that we all identify our present and future miseries and our role in these misfortunes, the only way we will agree, there will be consensus.

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[1] Renn, O. and Klinke, A. "Systemic Risks: a new challenge for risk management", EMBO reports VOL 5, Special Issue, 2004

[2] An example of the consequences of exposure of developing animals, including humans, to endocrine disruptors is the case with the potent drug diethylstilbestrol (DES ), a synthetic estrogen. Physicians prescribed DES to nearly five million pregnant women in the period between 1940 and 1970, to block spontaneous abortion was prescribed in the mistaken belief that would prevent abortion and promote fetal growth. Its use is stopped after a high incidence of a rare vaginal cancer in young women exposed to DES.

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GLOBAL RISKS

During the broadcast of classical super Boca - River (October 8, 2006), one of the commentators sports promotion was a disarmament campaign in Argentina with the phrase "A gun in your home is a problem in your home." On October 9, the world awoke to the terrible news: North Korea conducted its first nuclear test successful (do not understand what's successful.) According to experts (not North Koreans), the estimated size the bomb detonated, between 550 tons and 15 kilotons (the Hiroshima was 12.5 kilotons or so). Came to my mind the phrase Argentina "A gun in your house (our home, our planet) is a problem in your home."

Twenty years ago the German sociologist Ulrich Beck began the discussion on "global risks" with the publication of his book Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity . In the text highlighted the emergence of invisible risks [1] , risks unnatural, uncontrollable risks, which have their origin in the creation, distribution and use of new technologies.

This new weapon (pump) in my house, really it is a problem, a big problem. As Beck says, we became unmanageable and is not a problem in a particular country is a problem of all is a global risk.

Beck in 2002 highlighted three areas of conflict in the "world risk society": environmental conflict, global financial crisis and the terrorist threat [2] . In this corner we will highlight one of the environmental conflict: global warming. I know for certain is to talk about that much talked about, but perhaps "we hear?

But not enough to deafen our ears to the voices warning of the overall risk. Its effects and other senses are perceiving. Feel more heat, we noticed the temperature rising, we see glaciers disappear, we feel the death blow of the hurricane, the "child" is behaving strangely. We are sitting on a time bomb, as well as deaf we become blind to certain events: the number of hurricanes of Category 4 and 5 has doubled in the last thirty years (just take a look to 2005), malaria has spread to regions of higher altitude, heat waves are more frequent and more intense, more frequent infectious diseases (before we had a cold a year, we're not cold once a year), droughts and reduced production of ozone with impacts this entails.

The November 21 will launch the documentary An Inconvenient Truth . Global warming . E ste complete documentary highlights the very delicate moment in which our planet and shows facts, figures and information often not available when we try to see the entire context of global warming. The poster is published with this article for the documentary, and the following photos are an example of what is documented. For more information www.climatecrisis.net.

WHAT IS GLOBAL WARMING?

What is global warming? Answers a question that brings inconvenience to the main producers of carbon dioxide, inconvenient truths as reported in the documentary Paramount. The carbon dioxide (CO2) and other gases [3] warm the earth's surface by trapping solar heat in the atmosphere, a phenomenon necessary for our survival, but the rapid increase in the emission of these gases is increasing the temperature with the effects outlined above. Most scientists say global warming is real, the evidence is overwhelming and undeniable.

If the warming continues, we can expect catastrophic consequences

Only we can solve the problem we have at home, it is our obligation moral disarm the bomb. Small changes in our daily routine are great changes that help stop the clock on the bomb: drive less, recycle your trash, plant a tree, turn off your electronics when not in use, and reduce unnecessary emissions of gases listed. The time to solve the problem NOW.

Yesterday was Katrina, now no matter the name. Yesterday was "trinity" (1945 U.S.), RDS-1 (Russia 1949), Hurricane (1952 in England), Gerboise Bleue (1960 in France), " 596" (1964 in China), Smiling Buhdda (1974 India), Chagai-I (1998 in Pakistan), today no matter the name (North Korea). Because in the end is, a global risk. Agree in our moral responsibility towards our house, is a global risk and its solution must be global. But there's the problem, given the global risk is what makes it uncontrollable. Only when North Koreans, South Koreans, Israelis, Palestinians, Catholics, Muslims, powerful economic groups (oil) producers "dirty" technologies, among other groups "guilty" of having "a gun at home" join the campaign of disarmament, we can begin an effective solution to the problems generated by this irrational struggle with our house.

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[1] In fact, Beck speaks of "unseen dangers." Beck According to some critics, there is confusion between what Beck means what it means danger and risk. The English translation and publication risk society ( Risk Society: Towards a new modernity ) Was held in 1992.

[2] In 1999, Beck published the book World Risk Society. After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, Beck published article Terrorist Threat, World Risk Society revisited .

[3] (N20, CH4, HFCs, PFCs, SF6) gases are known as "greenhouse gases" because they trap solar radiation, longwave causing a gradual warming effect around the Earth. Although there natural presence of these greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, its concentration has increased dramatically over the last hundred years due primarily to high carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation based on fossil fuels generation that has been the driving force of rapid industrialization in developed countries.

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In a pandemic outbreak

AN OUTBREAK OF A PANDEMIC

The Real English Academy defines pandemic as "e epidemic that ISEASE extends to many countries, or that attacks almost all individuals in a locality or region " . The map of countries that have reported outbreaks of the so-called "bird flu" or "bird flu" is a clear example of a pandemic (see map to January 2006).

Our attention has focused on whether or not delivery Vicente Castaño, have an abortion or not the child of 11 years or at the latest "no tits no paradise", but no eggs or roasted or grilled chicken there will be no paradise. Few care about the scourge that is plaguing Asian and African countries, the bird flu virus. Those of us who do those "blind eye", simply because they were not infected or because there is a risk we see distant in time and distance, know the true effects of this threat, of this pandemic.

invite you to read this little compilation of what is happening in the world in recent months with the plague "Discovey Channel rightly called" biological pump " [ 1] . It begins with a description of what the avian flu virus and ends with the latest worldwide news on the progress of this "flying fever"

What is avian influenza?

Avian influenza, also known as bird flu or the plague of birds, was first identified in Italy more than 100 years. It is a highly contagious viral disease caused by type A strains of flu virus that can affect all species of birds.

According World Organization of Health Organization (WHO), the avian influenza virus are members of the family Orthomyxoviridae, genus Influenzavirus Type A. These viruses are divided into subtypes on the basis of their membrane proteins hemagglutinin (H) and neuraminidase (N). To date, 15 subtypes of hemagglutinin recognizing the influenza virus (H1-H15) and 9 subtypes of neuraminidase (N1-N9). Outbreaks of highly pathogenic forms have been caused by influenza A viruses of subtypes H5 and H7, including H5N1 known.

H5N1 is the most concerns scientists because it is a strain mutates rapidly and their tendency to acquire genes from viruses infecting other animal species. Its ability to cause severe disease in humans has now been documented on several occasions (see table August 2006). Laboratory studies have shown that isolates from this virus can have serious effects in humans. Birds that survive infection excrete virus for at least 10 days, orally and in faeces, thus facilitating further spread in the markets for live poultry and through migratory birds (WHO).

Effects on birds

The infection causes symptoms in birds, ranging from mild illness sometimes manifested as ruffled feathers or the decrease in egg production up disease highly contagious and rapidly fatal known as highly pathogenic avian influenza. " This form is characterized by sudden onset, severe illness and rapid death, with a mortality that can approach 100%. Birds can die on the day of onset of symptoms (WHO).

effects in humans

Although there is scientific controversy on the possible human infection, it appears that these viruses mutate, and they "see" more attractive human body than the hacks. The symptoms of bird flu symptoms in humans range from typical flu-like (Fever, cough, sore throat and muscle aches) to eye infections, pneumonia, acute respiratory distress and other serious complications that may pose a threat to life. WHO says he to human disease seems to begin with a respiratory acute fever (above 38 º C ) cough , respiratory distress and malaise , evolving towards a Table severe "distress" breathing secondary to viral pneumonia. The truth is that every day more human infections have been reported (see Table 1)

Table 1. Statistics on August 23, 2006 of human victims

confirmed Numbers WHO - Avian Influenza A / (H5N1) [2]

Country

	2003		2004		2005		2006 Total
	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths
Azerbaijan	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	5	8	5
Camboya	0	0	0	0	4	4	2	2	6	6
China	1	1	0	0	8	5	12	8	21	14
Djibouti	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
Egipto	0	0	0	0	0	0	14	6	14	6
Indonesia	0	0	0	0	17	11	43	35	60	46
Iraq	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	2	2
Tailandia	0	0	17	12	5	2	2	2	24	16
Turkey	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	4	12	4
Vietnam	3	3	29	20	61	19	0	0	93	42
Total	4	4	46	32	95	41	96	64	241	141

Table 2. Human victims in the last months of 2006

Country	Region	2005	2006
			May June		July	ago
Azerbaijan	western Asia	0	5	5	5	5
Cambodia	Southeast Asia	4	2	2	2	2
China	East Asia	5	7	7	7	8
Egypt	North Africa	0	6	6	6	6
Indonesia	Sudeste de Asia	11	22	28	31	35
Iraq	Southeast Asia	0	2	2	2	2
Thailand	Southeast Asia	2	0	0	1	2
Turkey	Between Asia ( 97%) and Europe (3%)	0	4	4	4	4
Total		41	48	54	58	64

In May 2006 the victims than those recorded in 2005. In 2005 the mortality rate of virus infection was 43% in 2006 is 67%.

What has been reported in recent months

In May

There much fear

investigators write in Science bird flu to reiterate its concern a pandemic bird flu (Source: Science ).

eradication is not secure

Romania has detected a new outbreak of H5N1 in poultry, barely a month after it had announced eradication (Source: Reuters).

Hope is the last thing you lose

vaccine is expected that a Vietnamese bird flu to be tested in August (Source: Thanh Nien News.com).

There is fear to disclose what is happening

A report by an Iranian military doctor saying that a brother and a sister had died of bird flu was denied by the Iranian minister of health, who insisted that the evidence were negative; WHO has called on Iran details the tests (Source: Reuters).

And in America?

Plans for a regional complex for diagnosis of H5N1 virus are under discussion between the Pan American Health Organization, the department of epidemiology Caribbean and the Ministry of Health Trinidad (Source: Caribbean Broadcasting Corporation).

If you know that we got the H5N1 virus, eat chicken? For your information, is not spread by eating, say scientists

The poultry industry in Yemen is losing about a million dollars a day due to bird flu fears , say officials of the Ministry of Agriculture (Source: Reuters).

victims continue to grow

human deaths caused by the H5N1 virus have been found mainly by exposure to backyard poultry, rather than working on farms in poultry, says the Egyptian Ministry of health (Source: Reuters).

Eye with Indonesia (see pictures)

WHO has confirmed six new cases of people infected with bird flu in Indonesia, three of whom have died (Source: Reuters)

In June

is still watering

Scientists in Europe have confirmed a new outbreak of H5N1 in southern Nigeria (Source: Reuters).

Threat of Pandemic

cases of avian virus in Indonesia in the last month, reflects the poor preparation of the international community to respond to the threat of a pandemic (Source: nature).

panic follows

over 1000 kill poultry in an Indonesian village in the Tasikmalaya district of East Java, where an analysis hints that the death of a 15-year-old was due to the avian virus (Source: Associated Press).

The World Bank and other Bangladesh international agencies to deliver two million dollars in aid to this country to combat bird flu outbreaks (Source: Reuters)

The risk is fashionable

The first international scientific journal dedicated to the avian virus was launched by Blackwell Publishing under the title "Influenza and Other Respiratory Virases" (Source: PharmaLive).

The thing is serious

bird flu experts at a meeting last week, said it takes a special international task force to coordinate research on avian influenza in developing countries (Source : SciDev.net)

An international team of researchers is studying the virus before the flu pandemic of 1918, to understand how the flu virus happens to each other (source: )

In July

came to Europe

The director of the Animal Health Laboratory Basque Derio (Bilbao), Ramón Juste, confirmed today, told Europa Press, which analyzed the bird from a wetland of Alava has tested positive for bird flu results (in the variant of the H5N1 virus). However, these results have been sent to the reference laboratory in Madrid. According Juste, is a 'loon', a type of waterfowl that are not usually known for being highly migratory, so it is possible that had been infected by other migratory birds carrying the H5N1 virus. "It's very difficult to make a thorough survey on all migratory birds," he said. ( http://actualidad.terra.es )

The monitoring committee for avian influenza control in the Basque Country has decided to withdraw from tomorrow the emergency measures laid down in around the wetland Vitoria Salburua the finding of no new cases of the disease following the discovery of a great crested grebe infected with H5N1 (es.news.yahoo.com)

Tsunami , earthquakes and bird flu it off

The variety of bird flu that killed seven members of an Indonesian family in May was mutating when extended from person to person, according to confidential data presented at a closed meeting of experts last month (source: nature )

In August

The first victim

China officially confirmed that the first death from bird flu was in November 2003 (Source: SciDev.net)

should be immunized

The researchers caution that at least 95 percent of poultry need to be protected by a vaccine to prevent H5N1 from spreading

Already is top-secret?

Scientists call for the secrets of bird flu to be shared (Source: SciDev.net)

Indonesia Again

The misfortunes accumulate in Indonesia and his bad luck can start to overflow and affect neighboring countries. WHO has confirmed a new case of bird flu in the Asian archipelago, and are 60. The infected by H5N1 is a six year old girl, a resident of West Java province, which began to show symptoms of the disease on August 6 (Source: ABC.es).

Are we ready?

In the latter case, the number of infected in the world rises to 96. Already exceeds the level reached in any previous year and has not yet come fall. When you arrive, resume travel of migratory birds and they increase the risk of spreading the virus. Are we ready? "We really can happen in our countries with the spread of this virus? We learned to live with other risks, such as AIDS; Do you take anything, live with the absence of our feathered friends? To change our diet economic supply of eggs to expensive beef or pork traded in the FTA? Do we really know that it is a pandemic? Are your economic implications, social and cultural rights?

final note

What most lay people ignore is why scientists are concerned? The answer is simple, and the ravages of live H1N1 virus, which mutated in 1918, during World War, causing the epidemic of flu called English, which killed between 20 and 40 million people. This number of deaths was higher than the war itself, than the famous Black Death. It was named so because in those years, Spain was one of the few countries in Europe where there was no censorship of the war, what was the English press first reported on the epidemic. [3]

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[1] On June 18 issued a document with this title

[2 ] WHO reports only laboratory-confirmed cases

[3] Influenza, or more accurately the English flu, has left its mark of devastation, both in the history of the world and in the United States. The murderer turned the microscopic world in four months and claimed more than 21 million lives. In the United States lost 675,000 people due to the English flu, more casualties than the First and the Second World Wars, the Korean War and Vietnam War combined. Pharmaceutical companies worked day and night to produce a vaccine, but the virus disappeared before he could even isolate ( The Journal of the Pan American Health of , Volume 8, Number 3, 2003)