Tuesday, May 16, 2006

Albino Russian Tortiose

The risk exists in the storm

The risk exists in the storm

The central hypothesis of an actual perception as proposed by Goethe's "live in the storm, or a pragmatist sense of perception without intermediaries is developed below. It does not mean this proposal, the existence of some entities or qualia impossible to reduce to a representational content, but the inevitable loss of content of any type of representation of risk, especially in natural hazards.

In the narrow sense of the philosophers, the direct perception applies to the properties of the object "seen" as "hot", "hard", "red" properties directly perceived through the senses, these objects pass to become objects of consciousness, which become representations, which communicate through language (words, diagrams, charts, etc.)..

At this level of perception (Sensory), the subject interpretant (as shown) or recipient agent, that is the same level, preceded by a series of elements that determine its epistemic access to reality.

theoretical load much discussed by philosophers of science and beliefs, including myths, legends and religious origins and cultural ecological niche and socioeconomic and political environment, require the existence of many perceptions about the same order of risk. Perceiving an earthquake is a different experience for those who are in permanent contact with this event of nature (areas of high seismic activity) that who have had contact only through a chain or network of representations. The perception of a threat between two perceivers of the same ecological niche with different theoretical load likely generate different representations, the presence of a wild animal, a lion for instance, is not perceived as a child than an adult, their attitudes (due to the collection) will be of wonder and curiosity in the first agent and fear and caution in the second. Even assuming balance of these elements, the psychological condition of the recipient agent will change the features of reality, according to their emotional state, such as love, hate, hope, fear, joy or fear, but also personal motives, interests and expectations play an important role in the act of perceiving.

psychology studies offer us other determinants of perception, which were among the most sensory response to many aspects of the environment (such as high frequency sounds and effects of color in mind), the ability to concentrate, consciousness (which develops the cognitive process or perception), adaptation and memory. Draws attention to the interest of psychology by the physiological basis of perception, especially the sense of sight, which gives the dominant meaning perceivers a large amount of data about their environment, in this regard are many studies of so-called Gestalt psychology. The anthropologist Colin Turnbull, studying Bambutis Pygmies of the Congo, tells how the greatest distance, which manage to perceive objects is approximately 30m, due to its ecological niche (dense forests), on a trip to an open plain one of these pygmies, seen for the first time in his life, confuses a group of buffalo, located a few miles, with a group of insects.

This multiplicity of perceptions resulting in a plurality of representations, which we can not expect a simple mirror reflection as we consider the philosopher Richard Rorty, each subject reduced sensory impressions, in the words of Peirce, a unit or proposition with the form subject predicate the earth moves, could be the first representation (language) of one of the perceivers to the experience an earthquake; the god Atlas scratches his head, could be the representation of another subject in the past Greek or the shock of the Pacific tectonic plate the South American continental plate, has just released a large amount of energy would be represented by an agent charged with the dominant scientific theory.

earners agents same risk, as we have seen, generate particular representations, which necessarily will have to be put into discussion and comparison, initiating the process of social construction and subsequent risk management (use and distribution). In this regard, Andoni Ibarra poses a risk as a social and objectively constructed and added the existence of criteria of rationality of social contingencies that allow the explanation of how to produce and reproduce a complex web of risk.

At this level the question arises again about the effectiveness of these representations of these social constructs. Whatever

concept that has risk the examples presented in the following lines show the low effectiveness of risk perception through different forms of representation.

The risks associated with smoking have been re-presented through films, photographs, documents, statistics, but most smokers, to continue their habit, seem not to notice these risks effectively. A thesis is that "if there is perception" but attitudes are more related to imminent failure of these risks, thesis does not contradict the direct natural sensory perception at the time of the occurrence of risk.

The people living near a volcano high risk of eruption (volcano Galeras in Colombia, for instance), refuse to evacuate despite the warnings posted and the different representations of literature and especially the movie (Volcano and Dante's Peak filmed in 1997) have conducted on the impact of these eruptions. Only when the rivers of lava, fire and rain of stones and ash are present, the people start a mass evacuation. There are actual collection in the storm!

Seismic risk is an even more illustrative. The millions of deaths and injuries, major economic losses, the images of cities destroyed, no representations have been enough so that different stakeholders (including politicians) who live in areas of high seismic risk (that have not yet seen the effects of an earthquake directly) take steps to mitigate these risks. The residents of cities located in seismic areas build their houses without complying with minimum standards for earthquake-resistance despite " perceived" catastrophic effects through representations that offer different means of disclosure of risks.

These three examples of perception of natural hazards, risks visible, known, registered statistically invite to reflect on the risks of artificial origin. The risks of technological origin in an invisible majority, in some cases risks are globalized and democratized say Giddens or in the words of Beck, in most cases can only be perceived through the representations that they make scientists and technologists, a perception that, as has been seen, lost content, is ineffective. Proof of this are high levels of pollution in cities such as Mexico and Bogota, the loss "invisible" in the ozone layer and silent change of natural crops by GM crops.

Throughout this stage, the solution to a greater effectiveness in the perception of risk is in isomorphic representations, as the mirror image of natural or artificial reality, the answer is negative. This reflection is an invitation to the construction of representations that focus not only in the sense of sight, consider also the weak translation or public performance of the current representations of risk.

Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Caught Short On Stage

What is this thing called risk

What is this thing called risk

What is that thing?

Such questions we found permanently in our relationships with other humans who try to perceive phenomena surrounding environment, be it natural or artificial. It is perhaps the first question of our children, the safety of their parents find answers to those things in the world still do not understand. What is that?, Is a question repeatedly in my two years. That's a library, that is a tree, that is a computer, are the answers to your questions. Only when you extend the description of the thing in question: that's a library, where books are kept, the books are ..., the question ceases, demonstrating perhaps a spirit child satisfaction in their research.

What is this thing called science? Is the title of a book by Alan Chalmers in 1976, but more than answer the question raises other questions such as the nonexistence of a method to prove that scientific theories are true, this book constitutes an excellent introductory text to the philosophy of science. "What is mathematics? E s a book by Courant and Robbins in 1941, but not directly answer our question, its value lies in how readers about the mathematics, be they beginners, specialists, teachers, engineers and philosophers. Einstein himself regarded this book as "a brilliant exposition of key concepts and methods throughout the field of mathematics" [1]


What is science? It is a question that generates debate and discussion about its response. León Olivé in his book "The good, the bad and reason", considers a question metascientific, which tries to respond from outside science. There are three disciplines, according to Oliver, who care to analyze this question: the history of science, sociology of science and philosophy of science.

The concepts of general science and math particular can not be defined. Against the tendency to define "the indefinable", the Roman jurists were wise and radically contrary to the definitions, for them, a definition was dangerous or as expressed Olivé: "any attempt to do, namely to establish conditions and enough that something must satisfy to qualify as science, risk cover too much or stop much out. " The definitions are tools of linguistic clarification (just take a look to the dictionary) and sometimes the definitions are the result of conceptual analysis, but not the procedure to get the essence of the thing, the reality of that thing.

What is this thing called risk?

One of the most important debates on science and technology, is that in recent decades revolves around the concept of "risk." There is no agreement theory between what is meant by risk. It is a concept exposed to social discussions, policies and techniques.

From the technical view, risk is defined as the probability of occurrence of an event with a positive or negative, the negative being the most associated with risk. This "objective risk" experts, framed in economic and political dimensions, hidden social dimension of risk, under the false assumption of cognitive deficits lay public, which since its "subjectivity" only generates movement against scientific and technological developments.

The truth is that in general there is no clear notion of what the risk. Its etymological origin tends to be confused with the word danger: Risk (in English), rischio (in Italian), risque (French), risiko (in German) and risk (in English) from the "danger" that represented the marine rocks (cliffs) to the sailors. Recently I urged León Olivé to philosopher asked a Chinese student, stay at the Instituto Tecnológico Metropolitano de Medellín, about what they understand by risk in China. The general confusion, risk in China is "endangered" its ideogram is a knife. However, once you Olivé clarifies what he meant by risk, "a situation or event which brings into play something valuable for human beings, including humans themselves, and where the outcome is uncertain" [2] , our Chinese friend replied: "Ah! So risk is a potential danger. "

The sociologist Anthony Giddens, calls attention to the difference between hazard and risk, "hazard and risk are closely related, but not the same thing. The difference not a function of whether or not an individual consciously weigh alternatives to supplement or take a course of action. It assumes that the risk is the danger, not necessarily the same danger, for his part Niklas Luhmann, in Sociology of Risk said that "exposure to a hazard is a risk (potential risk) ... There is no ultimate authority - even invisible - that would settle the uncertainty known risk. " The uncertainty itself, gives a subjective character called "objective risk" subjective probability "risk target" fosters a misperception of risk. The risk is not is real, is only a probability, a prediction and sometimes, as in the hazards of biotechnology, an uncertainty.

risk Other scholars are not agreed to make a distinction between "objective risk" of experts and the "moral hazard" of us laymen, Shrader-Frechette, Olivé, López Cerezo, Douglas and Wildavsky, among others, are in uncertainty and risk perception, two key elements to eliminate this distinction. The terrorist attack of September 11, 2001, reflects one's perception risk experts and laymen, is no longer a probability, not a calculated risk, is "the risk come true."

From the technical approach is rescued concepts underlying an understanding of the concept of risk and a possible consensus between experts and lay people: the threat, vulnerability and impact. Independent formulas or sophisticated statistical models employed by financial experts, engineers, technologists, administrators, health professionals, these concepts only require some attention to understand that the greater threat and a greater vulnerability of biophysical cultural or social impact is greatest. But not to be confused with risk impact, has so called "risk become a reality, a name that comes more from the perception of risk that the risk itself. Nor can confuse threat to the event, an earthquake per se is not a threat, an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 on the Richter scale and with a relatively shallow focus close to a city whose buildings are vulnerable, it is clearly a threat to the city , clearly by the recent experiences in disaster aged, vulnerable because there is no building "earthquake."

around the concept of vulnerability exists greater consensus. Vulnerability is linked directly to loss or damage (impact) that can result in the presence of a threat. UNDRO [3] defined as the degree of loss of an element or group of elements at risk resulting from the likely occurrence of a disastrous event, expressed on a scale from 0 or without damage to 1 or total loss. In general the vulnerability reflects the level of exposure to the threat, a roofless house is vulnerable to rain, which may not generate losses but if an injury, discomfort or temporary impairment to the inhabitants of the house, a computer without an updated antivirus program is vulnerable to new viruses, the cognitive impairment of the lay public we deal with the consequences generated by the presence of avian influenza in Asia and Europe, is a vulnerability of social and economic.

Experts evaluate the risk from these three concepts, the first two (threat and vulnerability), known risk factors and the third for what it is to anticipate. " The magnitude of expected impacts of an event, if it occurs, and the probability of the event and its associated consequences, are evaluated in the context of existing controls. The consequences and probabilities are combined to produce a level of risk. These impacts and probabilities can be estimated using statistical analysis and calculations or alternatively subjective estimates that reflect the degree of conviction of an individual or group that may occur particular event or result "(Australian Standard Risk Management , AS / NZS 4360:1999).

Without falling into cultural relativism Douglas and Wildavsky, who argue that " views on the risk of non-experts are of the same value as that of the experts " the fact is that in a democratic society, "perceived risk" by the lay public, should be taken into account. Experts from their desks can not ignore the social dimension of risk, without trying to reject the knowledge of scientific methods to provide risk assessment but this assessment public participation is, in the words of Oliver, ethically essential.

Given the magnitude of the doubt about the risk itself, it is foolish not to consider the public perception of risk!



[ 1] "A lucid representation of the fundamental concepts and methods of the whole field of mathematics. It is an easily understandable introduction for the layman and helps to give the mathematical student a general view of the basic principles and methods."--Albert Einstein (on the first edition)

[2] León Olive in "The democratization of science from an ethical perspective", p.8

[3] UNDRO United Nations Disaster Relief Organization ( United Nations Office for Disaster Relief, now OCHA)

Wednesday, March 1, 2006

Free Watch Movies Online Mario Salieri

Anticipating the impact of technology on less developed countries

Anticipating the impact of technology on LDCs [1]

" When the benefits of committing a crime outweigh the costs, a person commit the " . Gary Becker (American economist at the University of Chicago), taken from " The end of man" by Francis Fukuyama

In the context of this intervention in order to avoid any discussion of epistemological, delivery of following assumptions: consider "nature" or "natural" the existing biophysical, technical and cultural, then this is not a dream or evoked nature, it is so much nature as biophysical, technical and / or cultures possess. It is "their" nature, "my" nature, actual or representational nature of it is taken, the second course is the crime, which I take as the transgression of nature before alleged, an offense then the elimination of the current "Monarch" is an offense to replace endogenous crops GM crops, is a crime risk of technological origin fact.

One of the least developed countries is the low investment in R & D activities + I and consequently, low or no investment in studies on the impacts of new and old technologies in the natural environment and social development of these countries. Moreover, public policies associated with the interests of economic groups, some supported the initiatives to assess these impacts, promoting environmental crime, cultural, or social. Crime from this cognitive deficit can be characterized as unintentional, but from a scientific-technological irrationality impact assessment is clearly intentional.

deny that technology is a key factor in developing countries is as absurd as to deny that it is an essential factor in the emergence of new risks. Society to deny technology or Broncano artificial world is to deny Beck's risk society.

These risks of technological origin that have triggered the alerts in the precarious relationship between technology - society are left to show through what the media are allowed to manage or report: the evil of mad cow disease (bovine spongiform encephalopathy or BSE), the thinning of the ozone layer, global warming, the asbestos industry, la catástrofe nuclear, la contaminación por residuos tóxicos, los efectos inciertos de los alimentos transgénicos son sólo unos pocos ejemplos de los impactos no anticipados.

Los impactos de la bomba atómica y del ataque terrorista del 11 de septiembre, son tan reales que el riesgo objetivo de los expertos se confunde con el riesgo subjetivo de nosotros los legos. El riesgo real se democratiza, se estrecha la relación tecnología – sociedad, se crean los pactos, las políticas ahora tienen en cuenta la participación ciudadana.

Pero riesgos no tan visibles como los originados por las nuevas tecnologías de la información y la comunicación, especially "Internet" and the still uncertain risks that arise from biotechnology constitute compelling theme in any technological development agenda.

These new risks do not respect the level of development of either country.

genetic engineering and its great product, the human genome project has generated social movements grouped around the uncertainty associated with future use of this new knowledge. The possibility of crime, apparently overcome such as eugenics or crimes against human dignity, leads in turn to the governments of developed countries should set up to evaluate and if appropriate to regulate these new technologies. The subprogrammes ELSI ( Ethical, legal and social issues) U.S., the HALS in Europe or the International Committee of Bioethics reflects the concern of scientists, politicians and society in general face these new challenges the world technology.

initial questions then arise, why in our countries, less developed, there are no such bodies? Like we are consumers of genetically modified foods and importers of organophosphorus (possible cause of BSE and not feed as you think). We have become attractive clients' businesses transgenic "as Monsanto, what are the policies for prevention and control that we make? Economic interests take precedence over the general good? How to prevent crime?

Parallel to the globalization of the economy, treated as arising from free trade that strengthen not only the markets but the risk society. It's no wonder that the first transgenic maize native corn, corn that increasingly bizarre "natural world." Under the pretext of calming world hunger, the severity risks are created, not assessed, threatens the existence of the so often deteriorated nature, ignoring the problem is not food but poverty. The ecological imbalance and loss of biodiversity resist any ethical judgments of cost-effective.

What then is the role of LDCs in these trials ethical? Are we mere accomplices to crimes, to the use and abuse of new technologies?



[1] Intervention in the International Technology and Development. Institute of Technology Metropolitan. Medellín, March 1, 2006

country

Thursday, December 15, 2005

Calories Burned Waverunner

Colombia country of disaster risk perception

Colombia disaster

E n recent years, disasters natural or technological origin, have increased the number of affected persons throughout the world. Budgets to address these emergencies are no longer sufficient. The unfortunate experience left by Hurricane Katrina, is one of many calls attention to governments to formulate effective policies for disaster prevention, thus avoiding the terrible nightmare of helplessness in response to the disaster.

P ut if a powerful country like the United States was powerless against the New Orleans disaster that awaits Colombia with the limited resources to deal with such events. Statement is not free, the only example of the Galeras volcano is confirmed.

We are a country with a sad history of disasters. We live with the constant threat of earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, terrorist attacks, epidemics, car accidents and other social origin, of whom we deal in this corner.

Three disasters in Colombia are in the "Top 10" the world. The database of international disasters (EM-DAT) of University of Louvain in Brussels, Belgium, ranks at the top Villatina disasters (by sliding one of the slopes of Medellin), Armero (volcanic origin ) and Cali (industrial accident scarcely known by many Colombians). EM-DAT disaster recorded worldwide since 1900 to date, having as its main sources: government agencies (especially care offices and disaster prevention), NGOs, research centers, disaster, insurance companies and news agencies.

The September 27, 1987, there was an avalanche on the slopes of Sugar Loaf Mountain, burying more than 400 people in the poor sector of Villatina in Medellín (EM-DAT talks 640). The lack of government policies and then applying the rules of the substandard settlements then conducive to disasters of Villatina flying to happen, and overcome the disgrace that we occupy seventh place in the top 10” de desastres por deslizamiento.

Top 10 Countries affected by Slides
sorted by number of people killed and affected

Country

Date

Killed

Country

Date

Affected

Soviet Union

1949

12,000

Brazil

11-Jan-1966

4,000,000

Peru

Dec-1941

5,000

India

Jul-1986

2,500,000

Honduras

20-Sep-1973

2,800

India

12-Sep-1995

1,100,000

Peru

10-Jan-1962

2,000

Nepal

15-Jul-2002

265,865

Italy

9-Oct-1963

1,189

Indonesia

31-Mar-2003

229,548

India

1-Oct-1968

1,000

Philippines

19-Dec-2003

217,988

Colombia

27-Sep-1987

640

India

17Aug-1998

200,000

Peru

18-Mar-1971

600

Bolivia

Feb-1994

165,000

China P Rep

23-Mar-1934

500

Brazil

30-Jul-2000

143,000

India

18-Sep-1948

500

Chile

19-Jun-1991

82.811

Created on: Nov-21 -2005. - Data version: v05.10

recently reminisced about the 20 years of Armero disaster, but it seems we have learned. We can only Omaira image as a faithful witness of what had actually happened. The government and budget came away with it, the dead do not consume resources.

The volcanic disaster that claimed over 21,000 lives is the second highest in the history recorded by the EM-DAT

Top 10 Countries Affected by Volcano
sorted by number of people Killed and Affected

Country

Date

Killed

Country

Date

Affected

Martinique

8-May-1902

30,000

Philippines

9-Jun-1991

1,036,065

Colombia

13-Nov1985

21.800

Indonesia

5-April-1982

300.000

Guatemala

24-Oct-1902

6,000

Indonesia

1969

250,000

Indonesia

1909

5,500

Philippines

6-Feb-1993

165,009

Indonesia

May-1919

5,000

New Guinea

19-Sep-1994

152,002

Guatemala

1929

5,000

Ecuador

3-Nov-2002

128,150

New Guinea

15-Jan-1951

3,000

Zaire/Congo

17-Jan-2002

110,400

Cameroon

21Aug-1986

1,746

Indonesia

3-Jan-1963

78,000

Indonesia

3-Jan-1963

1,584

Guadeloupe

30Aug-1976

75,003

St Vincent Grenadines

8-May-1902

1.565

Mexico

21-Dec-1994

75.000

Created on: Nov-21-2005 . - Data version: v05.10

In industrial disasters are the champions. On August 7, 1956, in Cali was recorded more dreadful disaster of industrial origin. Seven military trucks carrying 40 tons of gelatinous dynamite explode, destroying more than 40 blocks in five neighborhoods in the city. The records EMDAT 2.700 dead, Cali talk to more than 10,000. "For three days straight, got trucks of corpses" is the testimony of one of the gravediggers in the city. "Flying fireballs, I thought the world was running out," says another of the witnesses of the disaster.

"What other disasters await us? We are vulnerable in all contexts, socially and economically we are not prepared. The major technological developments bring other impacts (invisible ones, known others), we have not evaluated and less developed policies for prevention. Hopefully in the future, anthropogenic disaster does not lead us to occupy the first places in the database EM-DAT

Top 10 Countries Affected by Industrial Accident
sorted by numbers of people killed and affected

Country

Date

Killed

Country

Date

Affected

Colombia

7-Aug-1956

2,700

Mexico

19Nov-1984

708,248

India

3-Dec-1984

2,500

Brazil

1-Apr-2003

550,000

China P Rep

26-Apr-1942

1,549

Soviet Union

29-Sep-1957

400,935

France

10-Mar-1906

1,099

Japan

30-Sep-1999

320,600

Nigeria

17-Oct-1998

1,082

India

3-Dec-1984

300,000

Iraq

17Aug-1989

700

Canada

1979

220,000

Soviet Union

4-Jun-1989

607

USA

28-Mar-1979

200,000

Germany

21-Sep-1921

600

Italy

10-Jul-1976

190,893

USA

16-Apr-1947

561

China P Rep

16-Apr-2004

150,000

Brazil

25-Feb-1984

508

Soviet Union

26-Apr-1986

135,000

Created on: Nov- 21-2005. - Data version: v05.10